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WoW Economy Weekly Wrap-Up: Battle for Azeroth Updates, Expansion Preparation, WoW Tokens & 1,000 Uldaman Runs

Pubblicato 19/05/2018 alle 10:57 da Gumdrops

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Accedi per Pubblicare un Commento 17 Commenti

Commento di Chilela Looking at the data between right before CoD was added to the bnet launcher and now makes the whole situation feel overblown. Before it was announced, the token was hovering at about 205k gold on NA servers. Right after it was announced, several people panic bought under the presumption that tokens prices would "skyrocket". At their peak, they jumped up to about 238 gold, roughly a 15-20% increase, before people started buying tokens en masse to take advantage of this price surge, causing the price to go back down, before a smaller wave of panic buyers caused the token to jump by a lesser amount. At this point, the overall price of tokens has more or less evened out at... About 208k gold. While I definitely have concerns about other games influencing the WoW economy (although Blizzard's other games should be held to similar levels of scrutiny in this regard), this comes as more of an issues with tokens themselves. Commento di Ukybyst About the wow token and inflation, i think it's a mistake to say that there is no correlation. The price in euros of the token is always the same but if i can earn more gold for the same price i will surely accept to pay more for in game content like crafted gear or ressources and this will result in an incresing of prices.\r
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About the 5m mount if they add a mail box and a tmog i'll go for it :p Commento di kinglou9588 Kind of a comment over the token price. But really it doesn't change the price of the token, it just rocks it a little cause there is movement. And if anyone is reading this, that also plays purely with balance or time tokens. Max out your followers after the Argus campaign. I have a lot more 110's than most I'm sure, but at 7 characters on one faction, I get one and half tokens a week so far.

I even just bought one just a moment ago at 205k. Very well in the 24 hour range it was before the CoD announcement.

I've been doing this since only maybe a month or so ago to bank as much Blizzard balance as I can to guarantee game time whenever I choose to in BfA. I wish I started leveling all those characters sooner when 7.3 first launched. Commento di lankybrit I'm preparing all my Tailors on 4 realms to craft loads of Hexweave Bags at the start of BFA. I really hope it doesn't go down in price. Commento di Xingbg It feels like both, the players and the Community Manager Ythisens are looking only at NA and don't take into account that the EU token is at 355-360k atm and it has reached even 400k. At that point it feels like a waste to buy tokens with gold because it's simply too much.
I personally used tokens to buy stuff in HotS, but with the current prices it's literally waste to do that. So yeah the prices going even higher isn't great. Honestly I'd be happy if the cost of stuff went with up because of the tokens, but sadly it doesn't, so what's happening(especially in EU) is that people who can afford it can for example get the new 5 mil mount without issue and at this point it doesn't even feel impressive to have it. I personally will have more than 5mil at launch, but I won't get the mount for no other reason then the fact that it simply isn't going to be as rare as people expect it to therefore I might as well wait and get the rep discount(if it stays in the game) and get it for 4 million.

Honestly I'm not that happy with this, knowing that I've invested quite a bit of time to get the amount of gold I have and knowing that someone can get the same amount with real money in like few hours(time it takes to sell the tokens).
NA tokens are still at reasonable prices, but the EU tokens are at a point where it starts to feel like they give advantage. Buying 6 tokens = gearing 2 chars at the beginning of expansion\/new raid within 1-2 days. If they maybe remove the BoE titanforged gear that wouldn't matter as much I guess. Commento di jblosun I will be buying the Brutosaur because it costs 5 million gold, and I have 5 million gold. It will occasionally be handy for, say, buying a gem for a new piece of gear, but I don't really care what the NPCs do. I'd actually rather have seats to give my friends dino rides! Commento di Tombsv I just reached 2 million gold because I wanted the spider mount. But now I need to save those 2 million so I can get that bronto mount instead. Commento di SquirePip the problem with the tokens isn't new stuff being added that you can use gold\/slash tokens to but stuff with, it's that everyday there are more people with excess gold willing to buy them then there are people willing to spend real world money in exchange for gold. Commento di Thoorin OMG, the auction house mount.\r
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I want that one so bad.\r
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Having to actually bloody go down to one of the major cities (usually burning a long-cd HS-type item on the way there and back, or needing to relog to my mage, who is also an engineer) has been a chore, and made me avoid actually participating in the server economy. I have no motivation, too - I got all professions maxed. Additionally, with many servers going through years of poor market participation and with overly greedy goblin wannabees strangling the niches and pushing prices to ridiculous levels, the state of the game was actively pushing me more and more into self-reliance, too.\r
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Now that I have a vision of being able to just grab something I need on the go, or of doing my AH in a super pretty, relaxing spot like new\/old Nagrand, or even my Pandaria Farm... The only 'little thing' is the 5m price tag. I never had this much money. I'm worth at best a mil right now... guess will need to work more stringently on my army of 14 110s, and do some gold farming or maybe even AH. Conversely, I could try and join or make a boost group... Commento di lordkhuzdul I'd say the auction house mount would be more valuable to raid groups than any farmers. It is not the listing, but the easy purchase of flasks\/food\/enchants\/gems from the auction house that would make that mount popular. Combine the mount with one of the portable mailboxes - the toy from the last patch or the engineer item - and a raid group avoids the last minute "forgot flasks\/food\/etc." panicking entirely. Not every guild stocks those materials for their raiders after all. Commento di magiccozmo One thing that was barely mentioned was that GOLD MISSIONS are a thing in BfA (so far...) I a only playing one toon in Beta currently (alliance) and over a few days I have seen 2 gold missions. One was 450g but the other was a whopping 1750g add on 50% bonus and that is a nice yield. Granted, I have no idea how rare\/often gold missions will become as I progress but it does appear that my army of alts might be profitable in this xpac (:\r
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And that leads to something else. From what I have seen, the leveling experience itself is more interesting in this xpac with more choices available. So leveling all those alts wont necessarily be doing the EXACT same things on each alt. Granted the I will likely be doing the main campaign on them all, but there are many many side quests that I have seen. Also, the horde and alliance are completely different in BfA YAY!\r
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As far as the Fred Flintstone mount... If I can make as much gold in BfA with my alt army as I have been in legion, than I will likely buy it. Not for the AH, just because it is one awesome mount. And I have some great 'caveman\/cavewoman' xmogs to go with it O_o Commento di HeldtUK It's pretty naive for someone to say that WoW tokens do not affect the overall market. Yes, in terms of a very omnipotent view, one can see that WoW tokens do not affect the overall gold that is "out in circulation", which should be a technical term to describe how there is 5,000,000,000,000 total gold out there in the game, and things such as vendoring items adds to that amount, and repair bills decrease that amount. However, this does not accurately describe the amount that "IS circulating", that is, the rate in which the amount of gold out in circulation is circulating\/being transferred from one player to another via market transactions. I will use two examples to prove my point: that the amount that is circulating in the economy can affect the market, and finally that WoW Tokens do affect the market.\r
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Market Conditions:\r
- 1,000g out in circulation, between ten players, with each player having one hundred gold. The average buyout price on the market is 50g. Average buyout price is half of the circulating players' wealth.\r
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Story:\r
1. All players are participating in market transactions at this time.\r
2. Blizzard announces a new expansion.\r
3. Some players (we'll use half in this example) decide to hold their gold in anticipation of the next expansion.\r
4. The amount out in circulation remains the same (1,000g), however the amount that is circulating reduces to 500g.\r
5. Previous market condition that supported 50g average buyout price with 1,000g that is circulating now responds to the reduced 500g.\r
6. Everyone executes their "allowed" market transaction types (buy\/sell), with five players buying and selling, and the other five players only selling.\r
7. There is a 50% likelihood that their item sold (5 buyers, 10 sellers), with a 50% likelihood that their item sold to one of the five players holding their gold.\r
8. For averages, we'll then say 400g now is circulating (2 buys were to non-circulating players, 3 were to circulating players). In previous conditions, players would sacrifice half their gold to\r
buy something. For simplicity, we'll say the same rationale applies.\r
9. The equilibrium\/acceptable price to these five circulating players now becomes 40g, a 20% deflation average buyoung price.\r
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Conclusion: The same amount of gold exists always (1,000g); however, the faction of the five non-circulating players now hold a greater share and most importantly are not circulating in anticipation of future event(s). We can conclude that it is possible for there to be a difference between the amount that is out in circulation and the amount that is circulating actively. Furthermore, it is also possible to conclude that a reduction in the amount that is circulating also results in possible deflation.\r
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Second Point:\r
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Market Conditions:\r
- 1,000,000g out in circulation between ten players, with two players having 300,000g each (non-circulating players), and the other eight players having 50,000g each (circulating players). The average buyout price on the market is 25,000g. WoW Token price is 50,000g. Average buyout price is 50% of circulating players' wealth divided by number of circulating players, same as previous example.\r
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Story:\r
1. Two non-circulating players, eight circulating players. (Reason for non circulation for one character is "no longer desire anything in the market", other is anticipation of release of expansion)\r
2. Circulating player buys WoW Token (via Blizzard Store), and sells on AH for 50,000g.\r
3. Non-circulating player buys for 50,000g. Non-circulating player: 250,000g. Circulating player: 100,000g.\r
4. Everyone takes a turn executing their allowed market transaction type (8 buy\/sells, 2 sells)\r
5. 7\/8 buy\/sells are between circulating players and result in no fluctuation of wealth, but 1\/8 buy\/sells is from a circulating player to a non-circulating player, which results in 25,000g no longer circulating actively.\r
6. Average wealth of the circulating players: 425,000g, average wealth of non-circulating players: 575,000g. Market conditions result in the increase of average buyout price to 26,563.5g (inflation has ocurred). (425,000 + 575,000 = 1,000,000, no gold added or removed in this example)\r
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Conclusion:\r
As we can see, this example supports the idea that the WoW Token does not increase the amount of gold that is in circulation, however because it takes money that is not actively circulating and turns it into money that is actively circulating, it results in inflation.\r
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Grand Conclusion:\r
Thus, because there is indeed a difference between the amount that is in circulation and the amount that is circulating, what the WoW Token does is (not inject gold into the total gold in circulation, passive or active) inevitably increase the money that is circulating (actively) which results in an increase of market prices, affecting the market as opposed to what Blizzard appears to be claiming in the article.\r
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Extra Proofs:\r
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1. Take for example how homebuyers may wait to purchase a home if there is news that interest rates from the central bank of a country may dramatically decrease (as they did around the world in the Great Recession). Indeed, another example is how economic units may hold their money if they anticipate general deflation, or very simply, a holiday sale rather than purchase something immediately. Economic units are often somewhat informed and will respond predictably. (This is in support of the idea that there are non-circulating players who are non-circulating in anticipation of a future expansion\/event)\r
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2. To ensure that there is inflation as a result of the WoW Token in the second example, I thought it perhaps necessary to do another iteration of the second example, however removing the WoW Token to document what the market conditions support through an iteration.\r
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Second Point (Modified):\r
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Market Conditions:\r
- 1,000,000g out in circulation between ten players, with two players having 300,000g each (non-circulating players), and the other eight players having 50,000g each (circulating players). The average buyout price on the market is 25,000g. WoW Token price is 50,000g. Average buyout price is 50% of circulating players' wealth divided by number of circulating players, same as previous example.\r
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Story:\r
1. Two non-circulating players, eight circulating players. (Reason for non circulation for one character is "no longer desire anything in the market", other is anticipation of release of expansion)\r
2. Circulating player buys WoW Token (via Blizzard Store), and sells on AH for 50,000g.\r
3. Non-circulating player buys for 50,000g. Non-circulating player: 250,000g. Circulating player: 100,000g.\r
4. Everyone takes a turn executing their allowed market transaction type (8 buy\/sells, 2 sells)\r
5. 7\/8 buy\/sells are between circulating players and result in no fluctuation of wealth, but 1\/8 buy\/sells is from a circulating player to a non-circulating player, which results in 25,000g no longer circulating actively.\r
6. Average wealth of the circulating players: 425 375,000g, average wealth of non-circulating players: 575 625,000g. Market conditions result in the increase of average buyout price to 26,563 23,437.5g (inflationdeflation has ocurred). (425 375,000 + 575 625,000 = 1,000,000, no gold added or removed in this example)\r
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Conclusion:\r
In this example, we see that the WoW Token being removed had a 3,126g difference in market condition (measured by average buyout price), clearly demonstrating that the WoW Token perhaps may not only cause inflation, but prevent deflation if there were to be deflation. Commento di lankybrit BTW: Question to the guy who did the video for tips for BFA. Why would you think Legion Mats would go up in price? That hasn't happened for stuff from other expansions when a new expansion shipped? Commento di NinjaLooterLoveU If you run Oldman 1,000 times, you are a super Old Man. XD Commento di JohnEP Soo, I have 12 alliance 110 alts all with full mission followers and one more almost done. In exactly a week's time, I have made 363,809 gold almost exclusively on gold missions. About 3 times during the week, I logged in and updated the mission tables at night but normally it is a once a day kind of thing. A thousand or so gold for doing resource quests to keep the mission tables up and running and 5K of gold from the coins of the air are also part of it, but that is like 1.5%. I no longer auction anything any longer as it is simply not worth the bother. I don't gather anything anymore, nor do I use a profession unless I have a use for it. I just buy what I need.
I have had trouble coming up with a use for all this gold. A 500K light forged mount, 5 $15 cash ins, but I am still left with close to 3 million in gold. Commento di baldie80 I did actually stock up on Tokens this week, investing a good chunk of my liquid reserves. Over the past 30 days I spent a total of 1.6 million gold on 8 Tokens, ranging in price from 196k to 204k. I could have invested more, but a) my reserves are spread across several characters and 2 realms, and b) I don't want to dip too low on reserves for when BfA launches and deals can be taken advantage of. The only question is whether Token prices will inflate faster than the game economy. It will all depend on player perceptions. Fortunately, with 10 Tokens in the bank and another $160 in Battle.net balance, I have a really nice cushion right now!\r
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On the CoD issue I would much rather non-Blizzard games stayed off the Launcher. The main issue is that these potential purchases dramatically affect one side of the Token transaction and not the other in a very short window of time. Sure, gold is neither created nor destroyed, but the upsetting of the balance does weird things to people's perceptions. Any time you willingly create a run on a market, you get both panicked consumers and unwise investors. Both increase volatility in an economy that is already volatile by nature.\r
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There are already many complaints that gold earning favours the long-time gold players and that paying your monthly sub with gold is out of reach for the majority of players - at least given the way they want to play the game and the amount of time they want to spend logged in each week. Which is fair to a point, but access to affordable Tokens is not a right. IMO, Blizzard is wise to keep a close eye on the system because it generates so much income for them, essentially allowing them to "sell" $15 to players for $20. I would love to see numbers on how many Tokens are bought with real money and with gold each month, and by how many players, so we can get a feel for who is buying them with gold and to what purpose. It would also be neat to see which games people are spending their Battle.net Balance on\/in, but that info wouldn't be very helpful given the other ways to add to your balance (plus it isn't likely to be forthcoming from the company!). Commento di waverve I will be purchasing a few tokens on Friday if the prices stay high. Otherwise I will probably wait a month with hopes that an influx of players will drive it back up.

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